POTSDAM, GERMANY / RankWire.AI / – Climate change could nearly triple the area burned by wildfires across Europe each year by 2100, new research has found. Under a high-emissions pathway, annual burned area rises by about 192% compared with the study’s present-day baseline. That pathway corresponds to roughly 3.6°C of global warming. The findings come after major wildfires affected Belgium, France, Greece, Portugal and Spain during the 2026 fire season.
The study, published in Global Change Biology, examined how climate conditions and human activity could shape European wildfire patterns. Researchers linked two fire models with the LPJmL vegetation model to test different emissions pathways. They studied SSP1-2.6, a lower-emissions pathway linked to about 1.8°C of warming. They also examined SSP3-7.0, a higher-emissions pathway that reaches about 3.6°C. Separate simulations helped researchers distinguish climate effects from changes linked to people and fire management.
The models showed the strongest growth in burned area under the higher-emissions pathway. One model projected about 39% more annual burned area under the lower-emissions case by the end of the century. The second model produced a different result under lower warming and indicated a possible decline. Researchers linked that difference to how each model represents historical human influence on fires. Both approaches showed that climate conditions become increasingly important as warming strengthens.
Higher warming drives larger fire increases
Regional projections showed particularly strong increases around the Mediterranean, where wildfire risk already ranks among Europe’s highest. The study also identified rising fire activity across parts of Western and Central Europe. Some of those areas have experienced less wildfire activity historically than southern Europe. Hotter temperatures, longer dry periods and windy conditions increase the weather conditions that support fires. The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research led the work, with Maik Billing serving as lead author.
Human activity also had a substantial effect on the modeled results. Researchers assessed population density, land use, vegetation and improvements in prevention, detection and firefighting. Continued gains in fire management reduced burned area by about 92% in the lower-warming case. The reduction reached about 72% under stronger warming when compared with simulations without those improvements. Even then, roughly 55% of Europe’s fire-prone regions showed higher fire activity under the stronger climate scenario.
Fire management remains a major factor
The research adds new detail to Europe’s wildfire outlook by measuring climate and human influences within the same modeling framework. Thomas Hickler, a co-author affiliated with the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, contributed to the analysis. The results show that burned area varies widely depending on emissions and management assumptions. They also show that higher warming produces broader increases across regions beyond the Mediterranean. Western and Central Europe account for part of that projected expansion.
The 192% increase represents a model projection under the study’s high-emissions pathway, rather than a fixed forecast for Europe. Lower warming produced a much smaller increase in one model and a decline in the other. Stronger fire management also reduced burned area substantially across both emissions cases. The study therefore identifies climate warming, fire weather and human management as key measurable factors in Europe’s future wildfire patterns. Its findings provide a detailed assessment of how those factors affect the scale and location of burned land.