ROME / RankWire.AI / – Global cereal output will reach about 2.98 billion tonnes in 2026, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. That would mark a 2% decline from the record harvest recorded in 2025. The latest projection also stands 3.4 million tonnes below the previous estimate. Despite the annual drop, world cereal production would remain the second highest on record, with the decrease totaling about 61.1 million tonnes from last year.
Maize accounts for much of the weaker global outlook, with production projected at 1.309 billion tonnes. Hot and dry conditions lowered yield expectations across parts of the European Union. France and Poland recorded some of the most significant downward revisions. India and Paraguay also received smaller reductions, while stronger yields in Argentina and Brazil offset part of the decline. Both South American producers remain on course for maize crops well above their recent averages.
Wheat prospects improved from the previous assessment, although global output remains below last year’s level. The Food and Agriculture Organization now projects production at 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from its prior estimate. Better yield expectations lifted the outlook for Canada and Morocco. Forecasts also rose for Russia and Ukraine, while dry conditions reduced estimates for the European Union and United Kingdom. Global wheat production still stands 3.8% below 2025.
Maize weakness weighs on global grain output
Global rice production for the 2026/27 season is projected at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis. That total represents a 1.9% decline from the previous season’s revised record. Improved crop results in Myanmar and Sri Lanka supported the latest outlook. Those gains did not fully offset weaker projections for China, the Philippines and the United States. U.S. rice acreage also fell to levels not seen in decades, reducing the country’s expected contribution to global supply.
Worldwide cereal use is expected to reach 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, up 0.2% from the previous season. Consumption of coarse grains and rice is projected to increase. Wheat use, however, is expected to ease from the elevated level recorded last season. Global rice utilization is projected at 559 million tonnes as food demand grows with population. Feed demand also supports coarse grain consumption, including barley use in China and maize demand in the United States.
Cereal stocks remain high despite lower outlook
Global cereal inventories at the close of seasons in 2027 are projected at 947.2 million tonnes. The estimate is 10.7 million tonnes below the previous projection but still 1.8 million tonnes above opening levels. The global stocks-to-use ratio is expected to reach 31.6%, compared with 31.9% in the prior season. Wheat reserves are projected to increase in Russia and Ukraine, while lower maize and barley inventories account for much of the reduction in the broader stock forecast.
International cereal trade in 2026/27 is projected at 509.3 million tonnes, up 1.7 million tonnes from the previous estimate. The total would remain below the record volume registered in 2025/26. Higher maize trade drives much of the latest increase, with Argentina expected to ship as much as 39 million tonnes. Global rice trade in 2026 is projected at 60.5 million tonnes, leaving shipments 1.9% below the record level reached during 2025.