MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has approved a long-term coal industry programme that sets annual production at 662 million tonnes by 2050 under its target scenario. The plan extends national coal policy through the middle of the century. Russia produced about 443 million tonnes of coal in 2024. The new benchmark therefore marks a substantial increase from that level. The Russian government approved the programme under Order No. 2606-r, dated September 22, 2026.
The programme sets several production paths rather than one fixed forecast. Its target scenario places output at 530.1 million tonnes in 2030. Production then reaches 595.2 million tonnes in 2036 before rising to 662 million tonnes in 2050. Other scenarios carry lower totals for the final year. The stress scenario puts output at 318.9 million tonnes, while the conservative case reaches 460.8 million tonnes. The inertial scenario reaches about 586.4 million tonnes.
Coal exports also form a major part of the programme’s long-term benchmarks. Under the target scenario, exports reach 266.7 million tonnes in 2030 and 320.2 million tonnes in 2036. The figure rises to 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russian coal exports increased 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The programme also covers domestic demand, processing capacity, production methods and regional output.
Eastern regions gain larger production role
The government plan gives Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East a larger share of national coal production. Those regions accounted for 48.3% of Russian output in 2024. Their combined share reaches between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050 across the programme’s scenarios. Russia also reports more than 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves. The programme calls for existing mining capacity to remain in operation while additional resource areas support future production targets.
Coal processing and mining methods carry separate numerical goals under the programme. Processed coal, excluding lignite, represented 58.9% of output in 2024. The plan raises that share to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit operations produced 78.4% of Russian coal in 2024. Their share reaches between 82% and 85% under the long-term indicators. The programme also includes measures covering labor productivity, mining technology, industrial safety and environmental standards.
Three stages map programme through 2050
Russia will implement the coal programme across three periods. The first stage runs through 2030 and covers near-term industry development and production measures. The second stage extends from 2031 through 2036, with targets covering processing, coal use and transport links. The final stage runs from 2037 through 2050. The Energy Ministry will oversee implementation with other federal and regional bodies. It must provide annual progress reports to the Economic Development Ministry under the government order.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin presented the updated programme during a government meeting on September 21. It replaces the coal industry programme through 2035 that Russia approved in 2020. Novak said the new plan projects a sixfold rise in the coal sector’s gross value added by 2050. He also put the broader multiplier effect at nearly 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne figure remains the programme’s target-scenario level and is not its only production pathway.