GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9 percent. The new estimate is more than double the 1.9 percent projection published in March. Stronger trade during the first half, shifts in supply chains and rising investment in artificial intelligence equipment supported the upgrade. Global merchandise trade volume increased 3.5 percent in the first six months of 2026. The WTO also expects merchandise trade to expand 4.1 percent in 2027.
Demand for technology hardware played a major role in the stronger trade performance. Goods linked to artificial intelligence accounted for 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth during the first half. These products include semiconductors, servers and other equipment used to build computing infrastructure. Trade in AI-enabling goods increased 67 percent from a year earlier. Global spending on AI infrastructure is also expected to rise by at least 30 percent in 2026, according to WTO estimates.
Energy and shipping markets faced significant disruption during the same period. Middle East crude oil exports declined about 24 percent in the first half of 2026. Liquefied natural gas exports from the region fell 47 percent. Higher shipments from other producing regions reduced the global decline to roughly 6 percent for crude oil. Worldwide LNG exports decreased about 1 percent. Global container throughput rose 3.9 percent through July as trade shifted across alternative suppliers, ports and transport routes.
Technology demand supports stronger goods trade
The outlook for services was weaker than the outlook for merchandise. The WTO reduced its 2026 forecast for commercial services trade growth to 3.3 percent from 4.8 percent. Transport and international travel recorded softer results amid disruptions affecting the Middle East. International tourist arrivals fell 0.8 percent in the second quarter. Across the first half, arrivals remained 0.4 percent above the same period of 2025. Growth in international travel spending also slowed during the second quarter.
Several service categories continued to expand at faster rates. Computer services exports rose 18 percent year-on-year in the first quarter and an estimated 12 percent in the second. Financial services exports increased 14 percent from a year earlier in the second quarter. The World Trade Organization forecasts commercial services trade growth of 6.4 percent in 2027. It also expects global GDP to grow 2.6 percent in 2026 before increasing 2.9 percent next year.
Asia leads regional export growth forecast
The regional outlook shows large differences in expected merchandise export performance. Asia is forecast to record 9.9 percent export growth in 2026. North America follows at 5.7 percent, while Africa is projected to grow 5.6 percent. South America is expected to post growth of 3.4 percent. Europe is forecast to decline 0.1 percent. The Middle East has the weakest outlook, with merchandise exports projected to fall 17.2 percent during the year.
Merchandise import forecasts also vary sharply between regions. Asia is expected to post import growth of 9.5 percent, while Africa is forecast at 8.9 percent. North American imports are projected to rise 1.4 percent, compared with 0.5 percent growth in Europe. Middle East merchandise imports are expected to decline 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the latest trade figures showed resilience while also reflecting uneven effects from economic and geopolitical disruption.